Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the country that experiences the largest percentage decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2024 to 2025 among the listed options. The percentage decline will be calculated as:

[ \text{Percentage Decline} = \frac{\text{GDP in 2024} - \text{GDP in 2025}}{\text{GDP in 2024}} \times 100 ]

The GDP figures will be sourced from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook reports or other reputable financial institutions. If multiple countries experience the same percentage decline, the market will resolve to all such countries.

Background

The IMF's April 2024 World Economic Outlook provides GDP growth projections for various countries:

• United States: Projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. (apnews.com)

• China: Growth expected to slow from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2025. (oecd.org)

• Germany: Forecasted to have 0% growth in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• Japan: Growth projected at 0.3% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• United Kingdom: Expected to grow by 1.1% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• France: Projected growth of 1.1% in both 2024 and 2025. (caproasia.com)

• Italy: Forecasted to grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• India: Growth expected at 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• Brazil: Projected to grow by 2.9% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024, and 2.4% in 2025. (visualcapitalist.com)

• Russia: Growth forecasted at 3.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 1.5% in 2025. (visualcapitalist.com)

• Mexico: Expected to grow by 3.2% in 2023, 2.2% in 2024, and 1.6% in 2025. (visualcapitalist.com)

• Canada: Projected growth of 1.2% in 2023, 1.3% in 2024, and 2.4% in 2025. (visualcapitalist.com)

• South Africa: Growth expected at 0.7% in 2023, 0.9% in 2024, and 1.2% in 2025. (visualcapitalist.com)

• Saudi Arabia: Projected to contract by 0.8% in 2023, then grow by 1.7% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025. (visualcapitalist.com)

• Argentina: Facing significant economic challenges, with a projected full-year decline of 3.7% in 2024. (ibrc.indiana.edu)

• Turkey: Growth projected at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. (martinwheatcroft.com)

• South Korea: Expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• Australia: Projected growth of 1.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• Spain: Expected to grow by 2.9% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

• Indonesia: Growth projected at 5% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025. (caproasia.com)

Considerations

• Data Revisions: GDP figures are subject to revisions as more accurate data becomes available. The final resolution will be based on the most recent and reliable data at the time of market closure.

• Economic Volatility: Unforeseen events such as geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or financial crises can significantly impact GDP figures, leading to deviations from initial projections.

• Currency Fluctuations: Exchange rate movements can affect the USD-denominated GDP figures, especially for countries with volatile currencies.

• Inflation Adjustments: Ensure that GDP figures are compared in constant terms to account for inflation and provide a real measure of economic performance.

• Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market is not limited to a specific list of countries (such as those detailed in the background section or initially implied by 'among the listed options'). Any country is eligible for resolution.