Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if:

1. Peter Dutton becomes Prime Minister of Australia following the 2025 Federal Election, AND

2. The Trump administration removes steel tariffs on Australian exports during Dutton's term as Prime Minister.

The market resolves to NO if Dutton becomes Prime Minister but fails to secure the removal of steel tariffs from the Trump administration during his term.

The market resolves N/A if Peter Dutton does not win the 2025 Federal Election.

Background

In November 2024, the Trump administration imposed steel tariffs on several countries, including Australia. These tariffs have significant implications for Australia's steel industry and broader economy.

Peter Dutton, the current Opposition Leader, has criticized Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for failing to secure an exemption from these tariffs. Dutton has expressed confidence that a Coalition government under his leadership could negotiate a better deal with the Trump administration.

Despite Dutton's claims, other countries like Japan and India, whose leaders met with Trump, also failed to secure exemptions from these tariffs. Prime Minister Albanese has maintained that he has a constructive relationship with Trump and continues to negotiate, though he has stated that certain Australian policies, such as biosecurity laws, are not negotiable.

Considerations

The outcome of this market depends on multiple uncertain factors, including:

• The result of the 2025 Australian Federal Election

• The willingness of the Trump administration to make exceptions to its tariff policy

• The effectiveness of Dutton's negotiation strategy, should he become Prime Minister

• The broader geopolitical and economic relationship between Australia and the United States

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves to YES if:

  1. Peter Dutton becomes Prime Minister of Australia following the 2025 Federal Election, AND

  2. The Trump administration removes steel tariffs on Australian exports by September 1, 2025.

  The market resolves to NO if Dutton becomes Prime Minister but fails to secure the removal of steel tariffs from the Trump administration by September 1, 2025.

  The market resolves N/A if Peter Dutton does not win the 2025 Federal Election.

  Background

  The Australian federal election is scheduled for May 3, 2025. Peter Dutton, the current Opposition Leader, has criticized Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for failing to secure an exemption from Trump's steel tariffs. Dutton has expressed confidence that a Coalition government under his leadership could negotiate a better deal with the Trump administration.

  Despite Dutton's claims, other countries have also struggled to secure exemptions from these tariffs. Prime Minister Albanese has maintained that he has a constructive relationship with Trump and continues to negotiate, though he has stated that certain Australian policies are not negotiable.

  Considerations

  The outcome of this market depends on multiple uncertain factors, including:

  • The result of the 2025 Australian Federal Election

  • The willingness of the Trump administration to make exceptions to its tariff policy

  • The effectiveness of Dutton's negotiation strategy, should he become Prime Minister

  • The broader geopolitical and economic relationship between Australia and the United States

  • The specific timeline requirement (by September 1, 2025) which creates a narrow window for negotiations after the May election