This market predicts whether the annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate will exceed 3.0% in October 2025.

Context:

• The annual inflation rate for August 2025 was 2.9%, up from 2.7% in July

• This was the fastest annual pace since January 2025

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was at 3.1% year-over-year in August

• Economists have noted that inflation is "uncomfortably high and accelerating"

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that the non-seasonally adjusted CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by more than 3.0% over the 12 months ending in October 2025. It resolves to NO if the annual increase is 3.0% or less.

The official CPI data for October 2025 will be released by the BLS on November 13, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Resolution Source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/