For a positive resolution, the product needs to:
Be new, not an iteration of a previous Microsoft product such as Bing Chat.
Be publicly available for use by anyone.
The creation of this product needs to be primarily attributed to this new research team, either by the leadership of the team itself or by Microsoft leadership.
Since it might be a judgment call, I will not trade in this market.
Update 2024-20-12 (PST): The market specifically refers to products from the research team led by Altman and Brockman. Products from other Microsoft AI research teams, even if they meet the other criteria, will not qualify for a positive resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
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@Bayesian I agree that Phi-4 probably would qualify, but the team behind it would not. The research team led by Altman and Brockman that this market is referring to fell through afaik. Let me know if you disagree with this.