If Aella bangs Eliezer Yudkowsky before Tuesday, will she really enjoy it?
52
991Ṁ3927
resolved Sep 28
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if Aella reports that she and Yud had sex (before Tuesday) and that she really enjoyed it.

Resolves NO if Aella reports that she and Yud had sex but that she didn't really enjoy it.

Resolves N/A otherwise.

See this market for context: https://manifold.markets/Aella/which-manifest-attendee-would-i-enj

If either Aella or Eliezer ask me to delete this market, I will do so.

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Betting yes since I would expect Aella to be more likely to report if she enjoyed it, and for Eliezer not to request to keep it private if he thinks she enjoyed it.

I will be mildly surprised if this resolves NO, and not that much surprised with YES or N/A, while the actual odds of YES are probably not very high.

predictedNO

Taking a new position and putting in some liquidity, if you know what I mean

predictedYES

@EliezerYudkowsky Did you do that just to make the joke?

78% seems high for what I model as being Aella's base rate! I don't think I can do five independent things as difficult as "have sex with Aella and have her enjoy it on the first try" and succeed at four of them.

Me to Eliezer: "I dunno, I really enjoyed the first time we had sex... but on the other hand it was the worst sex we ever had."

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