If Aella bangs Eliezer Yudkowsky before Tuesday, will she really enjoy it?
DGG#Spicyfest#NSFW
52
1.3K
Ṁ991
resolved Sep 28
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if Aella reports that she and Yud had sex (before Tuesday) and that she really enjoyed it.

Resolves NO if Aella reports that she and Yud had sex but that she didn't really enjoy it.

Resolves N/A otherwise.

See this market for context: https://manifold.markets/Aella/which-manifest-attendee-would-i-enj

If either Aella or Eliezer ask me to delete this market, I will do so.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

5 Comments
44 Holders
107 Trades
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 of YES

Betting yes since I would expect Aella to be more likely to report if she enjoyed it, and for Eliezer not to request to keep it private if he thinks she enjoyed it.

I will be mildly surprised if this resolves NO, and not that much surprised with YES or N/A, while the actual odds of YES are probably not very high.

predicted NO

Taking a new position and putting in some liquidity, if you know what I mean

predicted YES

@EliezerYudkowsky Did you do that just to make the joke?

bought Ṁ25 of NO

78% seems high for what I model as being Aella's base rate! I don't think I can do five independent things as difficult as "have sex with Aella and have her enjoy it on the first try" and succeed at four of them.

bought Ṁ130 of YES

Me to Eliezer: "I dunno, I really enjoyed the first time we had sex... but on the other hand it was the worst sex we ever had."

Related in Spicyfest

See more Spicyfest questions

Related in NSFW

See more NSFW questions

More related questions