Will San Francisco residents vote in favor of changing the city’s governance structure in the November 2024 elections?
Will San Francisco residents vote in favor of changing the city’s governance structure in the November 2024 elections?
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50Ṁ169Nov 30
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This market relates to the proposed ballot measures for the November 2024 elections in San Francisco, aimed at making major reforms to the governance structure of the city. The market will resolve as 'Yes' if the majority of San Francisco residents vote in favor of any of the proposed reforms to the city's governance structure. It will resolve as 'No' if the majority votes against the proposed changes or if such a ballot measure does not take place. Publicly available official election results will be used as the source of truth.
This market was automatically created from https://sfstandard.com/2023/12/05/san-francisco-could-vote-on-drastic-reforms-to-city-hall-next-year/ .
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.