This market will resolve yes if there is a shift of at least 5 percentage points in national polling in favor of Donald Trump as a consequence of the assassination attempt.

National polling by Pew research centre will be considered for the purpose of this question.

This is polling conducted between 1st to 7th july, currently trump and biden have a difference of 4 points. For this question to resolve yes Trump and biden (or for that matter any democratic candidate) have to have a difference of 9 points. Additionally, if Kennedy drops out then I will consider the second graph in which they ask voters if there were only two candidates who would they vote for, in that graph biden and trump have a 3% difference currently, for this market to resolve yes that difference has to be 8%

I will resolve this question on the first opinion polling that is conducted since the date of the assassination attempt.