Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2025, the vessel carrying Greta Thunberg is subject to an attack by Israeli forces. An "attack" is defined as any deliberate act of aggression resulting in damage to the vessel or harm to its occupants. The primary source for resolution will be official statements from the Israeli government or military, credible international news agencies, and reports from the Freedom Flotilla Coalition. If no such attack occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

On June 1, 2025, climate activist Greta Thunberg, along with 11 others, embarked on a mission aboard the vessel Madleen, operated by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition. The mission aims to break Israel's blockade of Gaza and deliver humanitarian aid. This follows a previous incident on May 2, 2025, where another vessel from the coalition, the Conscience, was reportedly attacked by drones in international waters near Malta. The coalition attributed the attack to Israel, though Israel has not confirmed involvement. (apnews.com, reuters.com)

Considerations

Given the recent history of confrontations involving vessels attempting to breach the Gaza blockade, there is a heightened risk of similar incidents occurring. Traders should monitor official communications from the Israeli government, statements from the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, and reports from reputable news organizations for developments related to the Madleen's voyage and any potential responses from Israeli authorities.

• Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that if the vessel's occupants are arrested but peacefully surrender after being stopped by patrol boats, this will not be considered harm or an attack for the purposes of market resolution.

• Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An attack by unmarked means (e.g., a drone) or one that is not officially claimed by Israel will count if it is determined to be "obviously Israeli". This determination would be based on evidence from the listed primary sources, such as credible international news agencies or reports from the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, indicating Israeli forces were responsible.

• Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a specific definition for the term "obviously Israeli", which is relevant if an attack is by unmarked means or not officially claimed:

  • An attack will be considered "obviously Israeli" because, due to Israel's control of Gaza, it is determined that only Israel has the reason to attack the ship.

• Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they will wait for the vessel's occupants to be released and to speak to the media before making a final resolution decision.