Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2025, the vessel carrying Greta Thunberg is subject to an attack by Israeli forces. An "attack" is defined as any deliberate act of aggression resulting in damage to the vessel or harm to its occupants. The primary source for resolution will be official statements from the Israeli government or military, credible international news agencies, and reports from the Freedom Flotilla Coalition. If no such attack occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
On June 1, 2025, climate activist Greta Thunberg, along with 11 others, embarked on a mission aboard the vessel Madleen, operated by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition. The mission aims to break Israel's blockade of Gaza and deliver humanitarian aid. This follows a previous incident on May 2, 2025, where another vessel from the coalition, the Conscience, was reportedly attacked by drones in international waters near Malta. The coalition attributed the attack to Israel, though Israel has not confirmed involvement. (apnews.com, reuters.com)
Considerations
Given the recent history of confrontations involving vessels attempting to breach the Gaza blockade, there is a heightened risk of similar incidents occurring. Traders should monitor official communications from the Israeli government, statements from the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, and reports from reputable news organizations for developments related to the Madleen's voyage and any potential responses from Israeli authorities.
Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that if the vessel's occupants are arrested but peacefully surrender after being stopped by patrol boats, this will not be considered harm or an attack for the purposes of market resolution.
Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An attack by unmarked means (e.g., a drone) or one that is not officially claimed by Israel will count if it is determined to be "obviously Israeli". This determination would be based on evidence from the listed primary sources, such as credible international news agencies or reports from the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, indicating Israeli forces were responsible.
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I think Israel is going to try and be more careful this time given that a member of the European Parliament is on it. The reasons i'm betting YES is because IDF has probably grown accustomed to being trigger happy during their genocide that a soldier might screw up, and/or they attack the ship a little as a warning shot or to immobilize it.
@CarmelHadar if they are stopped by patrol boats, are arrested and they peacefully surrender that will not be considered harm or attack
So what country can give permission to that border?
Do you imply that Palestinians already have a country, and the fight between Israel and the Palestinians is just a border dispute between countries? Make sense.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen if they are stopped by patrol boats, are arrested and they peacefully surrender that will not be considered harm or attack
@WilliamGunn An "attack" is defined as any deliberate act of aggression resulting in damage to the vessel or harm to its occupants. The primary source for resolution will be official statements from the Israeli government or military, credible international news agencies, and reports from the Freedom Flotilla Coalition