Will this market resolve to yes?
resolved Feb 11

Resolves yes if this market resolves to yes. Otherwise resolves to no.

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predicted NO

I made a sequel to this market

Wait, how does this market resolve if it resolves N/A??

bought Ṁ41 of NO

@JoshuaB this contradiction in the market description calls for a N/A resolution i think

predicted NO

@JoshuaB Per the description, if the market resolves to N/A, then it resolves to NO. In other words, it won't resolve to N/A because that would contradict the rules in the description.

@JosephNoonan Most excellent point. My bad for not reading the description closely enough!!

sold Ṁ94 of NO


bought Ṁ20 of YES

since this is going to be resolved by your decision and it could go either way i will ask kindly that you resolve it in my favor. this would make my day :D (my position is no)

sold Ṁ45 of NO

@Birger sold my position for profit :D thanks for the like ❤

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@Birger i got me some yes shares :D

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Birger my NO position is back :D

predicted NO

Wow, only 7%? Sound like somebody needs to spike this up to 50% :)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

OK, since the probability has stabilized around 50%, let's make this more interesting. Now I have bet in the market, and surely would want to resolve it in my favor, since I can choose either yes or no and be perfectly consistent. Let's see how the probability changes.

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan Since you can always quickly change your position before resolving and we haven’t played these games before (meaning I don’t have a prior model of your behaviour), it doesn’t really update me in any direction:)

predicted NO

@TomCohen True, but I would have to sell my existing shares at a slight loss. So the optimal strategy would be to bet No as long as the probability doesn't go too far below 50% (since, if it went down too far, I could sell my No shares at a profit and then buy cheaper yes shares).