Will this market resolve to no?
4
66
90
6284
45%
chance

This market resolves YES if it resolves to NO. It resolves NO if it resolves to anything else.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

This market basically functions the same way as any other permanent "stock" market, since it can never consistently resolve. But, just as the stock markets don't linger around 50%, since they are based on people's opinions of the topic, this one should be roughly based on people's opinions about whether or not this market will resolve to NO, which of course, it won't. Therefore, I think more NO shares should be bought.

There's only one possible outcome that doesn't contradict the resolution criteria. Surely someone can figure out what it is.

@JosephNoonan
Here's my thinking (and why I don't bet on this market)

  1. It cannot resolve as YES since that means it doesn't resolve NO which is the resolution criteria for YES. So YES is ruled out because it's definitionally not a possible state.

  2. It cannot resolve as NO because if it did it should resolve YES, leading us back to point 1 which is an unresolved state.

  3. It cannot resolve as NA because NA falls under "anything else", meaning this market should resolve as NO leading back to point 2 which is an unresolved state.

So I guess by "only one possible outcome that doesn't contradict the resolution criteria" the outcome you're referring to is "this market doesn't resolve"?

@TomCohen Yes, but you could still profit by buying shares and then selling them after the market has shifted to increase their value.