Will the Sun's magnetic field flip in 2024?
Will the Sun's magnetic field flip in 2024?
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100Ṁ133resolved Mar 14
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The Sun's magnetic field reverses approximately every 11 years, as part of the regular solar cycle that also produces sunspots. This cycle, Solar Cycle 25, was predicted to be a cycle of weak activity, with the magnetic field reversing around 2025 or so. However, solar activity has been much stronger than expected, and it appears that the reversal will occur earlier.
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This market resolves YES if I can confirm from reliable sources that the Sun's magnetic field has indeed flipped before the end of 2024.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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