Will RFK Jr. win more than 10% of the vote in any state or district in the 2024 presidential election?
Basic
102
12k
2025
38%
chance

Resolves YES if he gets more than 10% of the vote in any state, the District of Columbia, or one of Maine or Nebraska's Congressional districts.

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https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/utah

I think the HarrisX poll shows him at around 20% in Utah... so I think that warrants going a bit higher here