
This market resolves YES if the following two conditions are met:
Isaac King confirms that he had some sneaky plan in the Whales vs. Minnows market, or he does something that is clearly an attempt to execute such a plan. A "sneaky plan" must be surprising and non-obvious. "I thought I could buy enough shares to overcome the minnows", "I thought another whale would jump in and help me", or any other plan that uses the natural mechanics of the market in a straightforward way doesn't count, even if Isaac expected it to happen last minute to pounce on the minnows. Examples of a sneaky plan would include taking out a secret loan from @NinthCause (or any similar pact that would metaphorically fit the description in this poem: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-whales-win-this-market#OglNi20vSFIk6EvS70nZ), paying people to bet NO and then switch to YES last minute, or manipulating the mechanics of the market in an unusual, unintuitive way that people didn't see coming.
Minnows ultimately win the market because they overcame Isaac's plan. This could be by getting enough points that his plan wasn't enough to overcome it, or by performing some specific action to prevent him from executing it (e.g., convincing someone not to give him a loan or paying people to stay on Team NO). If Isaac's plan is thwarted by some outside factor (e.g., he had a plan involving alt accounts that was thwarted by Manifold's new rules), it doesn't count, unless it is clear that the minnows would have been able to thwart it anyway.
Note:
Minnows MUST win the WvM market for this to resolve YES. If they lose even after thwarted some plan of Isaac's, then that means that at best they only thwarted Plan A or delayed the inevitable.
If Isaac's plan required the market to stay open for longer, then minnows will be considered to have thwarted it, since the current procedure for resolving the market probably wouldn't be in place if it wasn't for minnows arguing that the market should close earlier.
The first criterion here is similar to the one used in this market: /CodeandSolder/does-isaac-have-a-trick-up-his-slee. However, it is not identical. In particular, Isaac does not actually have to do something "unexpected and interesting" for that criterion to be met - it is enough that he planned to do something, even if he never attempted to execute it since minnows had already foiled it.
Some people have already offered to sell their NO shares if they are paid to do so. If Isaac takes them up on their offer, that is not enough to meet the first criterion, unless he already had plans to do this with a lot of people beforehand.
I will use my best judgement, but if there is sufficient disagreement over whether Isaac's plan should count as "sneaky" or not, I may resolve this to PROB.
If Isaac doesn't have a sneaky plan, this resolves NO, not N/A.
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