Does Isaac "Have a trick up his sleeve" in the Whales vs Minnows market?
22
36
430
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if he does something unexpected and interesiting, regardless if it succeedds.

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sold Ṁ2 of NO

Thanks Isaac

bought Ṁ285 of YES

@NicoDelon NP I always got your back

I made a similar market about whether such a plan will be thwarted:

predicted YES

If he has secret teammates he's keeping in reserve, does that count?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

So, I think this question already resolves Yes?

Clever trick #1: Switching the market resolution from 1 week + a few hours to "resolve when there is no longer meaningful progress" allows him to receive loans from the market every day and reinvest those to guarantee a Whale victory.

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch I find his reading of the initial rules completely reasonable and 2% loans on 1M capital is 20k/day, that's 2 minnows, he'd never win that way

predicted YES

@CodeandSolder it's compound interest and he most certainly could/would win that way

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch I also thought so at first but it isn't, paid out loans get subtracted from the remaining amount, if he reinvests all loans the amount stays constant, equal to initial capital

predicted YES

Fair enough, my point remains that he can invest 2%/day, keeping the market open indefinitely and eventually winning

bought Ṁ100 of YES
  1. Pay the "meat puppet" NO organizer(s) to organize a switch to YES

  2. Secretly many of the NO bettors are Isaac's alts and won't count.

Those both count as YES?

predicted NO

@MartinRandall 1 if he actually bribes them on a significant scale and not just offers it with no takers

As in, offering bribes is obvious and neither interesting nor surprising, but some cool twist on it or actually executing it on a large scale would most likely make it count

2 yes, but only because of how disappointing that would be

predicted YES

@CodeandSolder How about borrowing mana from @NinthCause?

predicted NO

@MartinRandall I dont think @Nithcause would do that.

@NinthCause @Austin can we get a confirmation that ninthcause wont loan mana out to individuals for the Minnows market?

predicted YES

@tornado Newsletter says:
> Among the top earners from The Market, both Isaac King and Marcus Abramovitch had large outstanding loans from Austin.

predicted YES

@MartinRandall I wish I was there to see Austin's face when Isaac told him that after winning M$500,000 by margin trading, he actually still needed the loan for just a little while longer.

predicted NO

In case that wasn't obvious from the title the actions also need to have the intent of gaining a significant advantage in the market. If somebody feels mislead by the omission of that requirement in the text I'm willing to compensate incurred losses.