Will Manifolders correctly determine whether the secret number is larger than 29 in my Cover's paradox market?
9
210Ṁ149
resolved Sep 30
Resolved
NO

The following market concerns a paradox in which it is possible to guess whether a randomly selected number out of two distinct secret numbers is the larger one or not, with >50% probability, no matter what the two secret numbers are.

If 29 is in fact the larger number, this market resolves YES if the average probability of the linked market is >50% and NO otherwise. If 29 is the smaller number, it resolves YES if the linked market's average probability is <50% and NO otherwise. I will use exact probabilities from the API.

I will not bet in this market, since my bets could reveal information about the secret numbers that I am not allowed to hint at.

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