Cover's paradox: Is 29 the larger of my two secret numbers?
52
1.1kṀ1379
resolved Oct 4
Resolved
YES

I have picked out two secret numbers, one of which is larger than the other. I then randomly and uniformly selected one of these numbers using the random.choice() function in Python. This means that there is no bias in me trying to choose the "harder" number for this market, it was all done randomly. The number that was picked was 29. Your goal is guess whether 29 is the larger number or the smaller one, without any further details on what the other number cold be.

It seems like you have a 50/50 chance of getting it right, but Cover's paradox gives a strategy that has a >50% chance of successfully guessing whether the number you're shown is larger or not:

At close, I will reveal the other secret number and resolve based on whether 29 was larger or not. I will not bet on this market, since I already know the answer.

The following Sha256 hash encodes text that reveals what the other secret number is, so that you can verify it after close (I'll reveal what the input to the hash function was):

0c1d75ced9facbe2a1d2d05697dd12cb6cd5532e217c8d16594f69f251e17247

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