Will Manifold actually be able to implement real-money prizes?
Mini
19
แน€558
2025
89%
Yes, but markets on certain subjects are banned from having real money prizes
85%
Yes, in some U.S. states but not all
81%
Yes, in more than half of the U.S. (by population)
72%
Yes, in the UK
67%
Yes, but Manifold is banned in some locations, such that users there can't even access it for play money betting
66%
Yes, in some but not all EU countries
50%
Yes, in Canada
50%
Yes, and at least some of the prizes are just plain money, rather than, e.g., gift cards
41%
Maybe, the legal status is still unclear at the end of 2024
36%
Manifold implements real-money prizes, but then removes them due to legal concerns
30%
No, Manifold decides against real-money prizes due to legal issues
11%
Yes, in every EU country
4%
Yes, in every U.S. state

Manifold is planning to introduce real money prizes as part of the "big pivot", but this introduces a lot of legal concerns. What will be the legal status of these prizes by the end of 2024?

The "Yes" options will resolve YES only if Manifold implements real-money prizes before the end of 2024, and "No" options will resolve YES only if Manifold staff state before the end of 2024 that they are no longer planning to ever implement real-money prizes. Otherwise, these options resolve NO. This is true even if Manifold implements real-money prizes but later removes them due to legal concerns: The "Yes" options that were satisfied will still be resolved YES and the "No" option will resolve NO in that case.

The "legal status is still unclear" option resolves YES if Manifold does not implement real-money prizes in 2024, but also has not publicly decided against implementing real-money prizes, AND one of the following is true:

  • Manifold has not gotten confirmation from their lawyers, various governments, and whoever else is involved in discussion of legality, that the real-money prizes would be legal in some jurisdiction, and the reason Manifold has not implemented the prizes yet is because they are unsure of this.

  • Manifold was holding out on implementing real money prizes due to legal issues. They confirm that the prizes can be done legally before the year ends but don't announce it publicly until the year is over.

It can also resolve YES if Manifold implements them and then removes them, but only if it is unclear whether they will be brought back, and this lack of clarity is due to legal issues.

Unless otherwise stated, options that state that Manifold legally implements real-money prizes in some country or state resolve YES as long as the prizes are legal in a part of that country or state containing at least 10% of its population. For example, if the prizes were only legal in Quebec but no other Canadian province, the Canada option would still resolve YES because Quebec has 22% of Canada's population. But if they were only legal in the Yukon, it would resolve NO because the Yukon has only 0.1% of Canada's population. And of course, being legal in every U.S. state/EU country or in some U.S. states/EU countries means that we apply this rule to each state/country individually, not to the U.S. or the EU as a whole. Also, note that even just one state/country counts as "some".

The options stating that Manifold will not implement prizes due to legal concerns, or will remove them due to legal concerns, only resolve YES if Manifold states that legal issues are one of the main reasons they are choosing not to implement the prizes, or to remove them.

"Yes, but Manifold is banned in some locations," only resolves YES if it is clear that the ban is due to real-money prizes, and that Manifold wouldn't have been banned without them. "Yes, but markets on certain subjects are banned," resolves YES only if those types are banned from having real-money prizes everywhere (or banned altogether). If Manifold prevents everyone except Scottish teens from collecting prizes from politics markets, then the option would still resolve NO.

"The end of 2024" refers to the end in Central Time.

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When you say "real money prizes" are you talking about cash into your account or gift cards/etc or both?

@gpt_news_headlines I would count gift cards or just pure cash as both being forms of real money.

@PlasmaBallin Hmm, interesting. Can you add an option for just cashout? They specifically call that out seperately in the notion document as being a seperate problem.

@gpt_news_headlines As in, an option stating that the prizes take the form of cash specifically and not gift cards?

What if they legal ambiguity is an issue but not the official reason?

@gpt_news_headlines If it's clear that legal ambiguity played a major role in the cash prizes either not being implemented or being removed, then I'll count it as the reason. If Manifold says it's for some other reason, and it seems like legal issues were at most a minor consideration, it won't count.

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