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@PlasmaBallin i think this is conclusive

Poor Binkley. Imagine getting crushed by four dropouts and "total write-ins" even while you're still running.

@PlasmaBallin Well at least he's doing better than this guy:

@PlasmaBallin He's even behind... checks notes... Mary Maxwell?

@Shump Maybe Mary Maxwell will start getting some media attention now as the primary candidate who no one has heard of, just like Binkley did after Iowa.

Christie is now ahead of total write-ins. So even the crazy scenario where all the write-ins are for the same person may not matter.

What if the 69 write-ins are from people who got confused about Biden not being in the Democratic primary and thought he was in the Republican primary instead?

@PlasmaBallin I am literally betting on that yes

@PlasmaBallin What Joshua said x2

It looks like the NYT's site mistakenly put a bunch of Haley votes from Franconia County under Hutchinson's name and then corrected it.

@jks NYT was just pulling a prank on prediction markets.

Okay, I just realized that I somehow forgot to originally specify in this question that it's the GOP primary, though based on how people are betting, I assume everyone already realized this.

Arb with third place?

If Binkley drops out, like Ramaswamy and Hutchinson already have, then I doubt he'll get 4th place.

@PlasmaBallin Funny that now he seems likely to get third place. though of course, if he drops out, that probably won't happen either.

Ryan Binkley has the advantage that he probably would have gotten fourth place in Iowa if Ramaswamy had already dropped out. But it's possible that he'll drop out before New Hampshire, or that he's just not as popular there as in Iowa.