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MANIFOLD
When will be the first time a Republican presidential candidate wins D.C.?
4
Ṁ240Ṁ208
2100
4%
before 2040
12%
2040's
12%
2050's
17%
2060's
12%
2070's
17%
2080's
12%
2090's
17%
Not in the 21st century

Resolves to the year in which the first presidential election where a Republican wins the District of Columbia takes place.

Market context
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
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Odd decades should be at a lower probability since they have one fewer election.

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