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MANIFOLD
What will be the margin in the 2024 Maryland Senate race?
18
Ṁ175Ṁ1.6k
resolved Nov 20
100%83%
D+10 - D+15
0.5%
Republican victory
3%
D+0 - D+5
11%
D+5 - D+10
0.8%
D+15 - D+25
0.8%
D+25 - D+100
0.3%
Other

The margin is the percentage of votes won by the winning candidate minus the percentage won by second place. The letter D refers to a Democratic victory. If there for some reason ends up being a special election, this refers only to the regularly scheduled election.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
US Senate
2024 US Election
Maryland
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@PlasmaBallin I think this can resolve now.

There's no way this resolves to Other, right?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 It would resolve Other if neither a Republican nor a Democrat won.

bought Ṁ1 YES

People should be careful when trying to make this look like the graph of a Gaussian distribution. I made some of the intervals wider than others.

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