What margin does Biden win the popular vote by? x Will Biden win the Electoral College?
50
2.4kṀ14kresolved Jul 22
100%97%
Biden isn't the nominee/isn't running on Election Day
0.2%
He loses the popular vote; yes
1.0%
He loses the popular vote; no
0.1%
0% - 1%; yes
0.1%
0% - 1%; no
0.1%
1% - 2%; yes
0.1%
1% - 2%; no
0.1%
2% - 3%; yes
0.1%
2% - 3%; no
0.2%
3% - 4%; yes
0.1%
3% - 4%; no
0.2%
4% - 5%; yes
0.1%
4% - 5%; no
0.1%
5% - 6%; yes
0.1%
5% - 6%; no
0.1%
6% - 7%; yes
0.1%
6% - 7%; no
0.2%
> 7%; yes
0.0%
> 7%; no
It's well known that Republicans have a big advantage in the Electoral College, which caused Trump to win the 2016 election despite losing the popular vote by about 2% and made the 2020 election a lot closer than it otherwise would have been. The purpose of this market is to determine just how big that advantage will be this cycle by estimating how much Biden needs to win the popular vote by in order to actually win the election.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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