According to the International Earth-Destruction Advisory Board, which describes itself as "an independent scientific institution which monitors the current status of the Earth and the number of times it has been destroyed," the Earth has currently been destroyed once. Their report on this alleged geocide (the board's name for an event that destroys the Earth) says the following:
It is our duty to inform you that as of 7:35:05am UTC on September 10, 2008, the Earth has been destroyed.
The destruction of Earth was first reported by Mr Jonathan Barber of Wisconsin, United States, who spotted that his home-made seismic Earth Detector had ceased to give readings at around 8:00am (2am local time). Several other amateur geocide spotters noticed this at the same time but Mr. Barber was the first to place a telephone call to the IEDAB's Geocide Hotline (+44 115 09Ω 4127, ask for Other Dave) at which point IEDAB officials performed an emergency check of their own instrumentation and verified Mr. Barber's report, as well as fixing the exact time of geocide.
Evidence is still being collated, but preliminary results suggest that the Earth was destroyed pre-emptively by scientists at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN, Geneva, Switzerland, before the commencement of their experiments to locate the Higgs Boson, as a precautionary measure to ensure that the experiment itself could not result in the destruction of the Earth.
Resolves based on the state of the evidence at close.
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This is probably distorted by the fact that if Earth was destroyed then at close there won't be any manifold servers that will be able to record the YES resolution.
@roma Presumably, all of Manifold's servers were created after the alleged destruction of the Earth. Otherwise, we couldn't be using it right now.
@JosephNoonan Why do Manifold's servers need to exist in order for this to resolve? The website could be running on magic.
@JosephNoonan I think if Earth was destroyed then Manifold wasn't created and doesn't exist. We could be confused and mistakenly think that Earth, Manifold, this market, and this conversation all exist. And even if we realise at close that Earth was destroyed, we could remain confused about existence of Manifold and still resolve this market as YES, but I think that's unlikely.
I'm not explaining this well. Basically this market should measure probability of "We'll stop being confused about Earth's existence". But in fact it measures "We'll stop being confused about Earth's existence, but remain confused about Manifold's existence", which is much lower probability.
@Anthem I guess it would count any means, even if it turns out that, coincidentally, the Earth was destroyed on 9/10/08 for unrelated reasons.