Manifold Plays Chomp: Fifth move
Manifold Plays Chomp: Fifth move
3
355Ṁ323
resolved Dec 29
100%88%
(1,6)
0.5%
(2,2)
1.6%
(1,2)
2%
(2,1)
2%
(2,3)
3%
(1,4)
3%Other

The rules of Chomp are simple. Players alternate turns, on each turn removing a square, as well as all those that are above or the the right of it (in other words, all squares with both coordinates ≥ it). The goal is to avoid having to eat the poison square (the one with the skull on it).

On Manifold Plays Chomp, Manifolders are playing against a computer with optimal play. Manifold's moves are chosen as follows: For each move, I take the top three options at close and make a market asking whether Manifold will win, conditional on each option being chosen. Whichever option has the highest average probability is the one that gets chosen.

The computers' last move was (3,1), leaving the current state of the board as:

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ126
2Ṁ2
3Ṁ2


Sort by:
1y
1y

Forgot to make the conditional market for this one. Here it is:

1y

All of my answers are at 1%.

🤔

It was supposed to be whale bait! Where are the whales!

1y

How does this resolve?

1y

I got a loan.

1y

I tried to add a very good answer but my balance is too low.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules