This market resolves to whichever option best describes the method by which the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee is selected. The nominee refers to whoever is the first person formally nominated by the Democratic Party, even if this is later changed (e.g., if Biden drops out after the convention, he still counts as the nominee for this market).

Clarifications:

• A brokered convention means that no one wins a majority of delegates' votes on the first ballot. However, a nominee must eventually be selected at the convention to resolve to this option - if they somehow fail to select the nominee until after convention, it will not count as this option.

• For any of the specific ways that a replacement nominee could be selected before the convention, it should be clear that this person is going to become the nominee before the convention begins. For example, if Biden drops out and says, "Harris is my replacement," but many Democrats still call for it to be someone else, and it's not obvious that she's going to win before the convention, then this resolves to the "no clear nominee before convention" option.

• Harris being the de facto replacement means that Biden doesn't explicitly call for her to be his replacement, but everyone treats her as the replacement pretty much immediately after he drops out.

• Biden naming a successor means that he says who he wants to be the nominee after dropping out, and basically everyone goes with this. It wouldn't count if, e.g., there's a competitive mock primary with Biden endorsing one of the candidates.