This market resolves to whichever option best describes the method by which the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee is selected. The nominee refers to whoever is the first person formally nominated by the Democratic Party, even if this is later changed (e.g., if Biden drops out after the convention, he still counts as the nominee for this market).
Clarifications:
A brokered convention means that no one wins a majority of delegates' votes on the first ballot. However, a nominee must eventually be selected at the convention to resolve to this option - if they somehow fail to select the nominee until after convention, it will not count as this option.
For any of the specific ways that a replacement nominee could be selected before the convention, it should be clear that this person is going to become the nominee before the convention begins. For example, if Biden drops out and says, "Harris is my replacement," but many Democrats still call for it to be someone else, and it's not obvious that she's going to win before the convention, then this resolves to the "no clear nominee before convention" option.
Harris being the de facto replacement means that Biden doesn't explicitly call for her to be his replacement, but everyone treats her as the replacement pretty much immediately after he drops out.
Biden naming a successor means that he says who he wants to be the nominee after dropping out, and basically everyone goes with this. It wouldn't count if, e.g., there's a competitive mock primary with Biden endorsing one of the candidates.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน755 | |
| 2 | แน296 | |
| 3 | แน269 | |
| 4 | แน141 | |
| 5 | แน131 |
Resolves to Other if pre convention considered important enough.
Resolves to 'Biden drops out, explicitly names successor, ,,,' if 'first ballot' is the requirement and 'at convention' is only an example.
or ,,,
Role call did seem plan at time question created though rules formally adopted after question created.
@PlasmaBallin Is that because
a) It is the first ballot that is the requirement and the 'at convention' part is just an example and not a requirement for this option.
b) The virtual role call is considered part of the 'convention process' so 'at convention' is a longer period than just the attended conference and includes the virtual role call period.
c) It is only that option if there is a "for show only" ballot at the convention. If the only ballot at attended convention is for VP then it would resolve as 'other'. or
d) Some other interpretation?
It's because of a). The market was written under the implicit assumption that the vote to select the nominee would take place at the convention, so "wins on first ballot at convention," was really just meant to say that she wins on the first ballot when they vote to select the nominee. And since the description says "best describes," I think this still best describes the process, unless she somehow stopped being the nominee.
Re: 1 Biden drops out, explicitly names successor, whom his delegates vote for (wins on first ballot at convention).
and 2. Biden drops out, Harris becomes de facto successor, wins on first ballot at convention.
These seem quite similar. Is endorsing Kamala sufficient for it to be 1 rather than 2?
To me endorsing is saying who they think it should be, but the delegates could decide otherwise. Explicitly names successor seems more like instructing delegates who to vote for rather than allowing delegates to make up their own minds.
I am not sure it is clear, is there a case for a 50% 50% resolution between these?
Seems weird that second of these is at 0.7%
Then there is issue of is a virtual role call effectively equivalent of first ballot at convention or is it sufficiently different to be 'other'?
Maybe a 33% 34% 33% resolution?
"Biden drops out, Harris becomes de facto successor, wins on first ballot"
Seems entirely true. That first ballot is not at convention seems a minor detail not anticipated when question written. (Though I can see people betting on other arguing it is an important detail so that it should resolve other.)
Virtual role call did seem the plan in June before this market was created 8 July, but I think these rules were only adopted ~6 days ago.
Given this, I would suggest 'wins on first ballot' is a requirement where this "(wins on first ballot at convention)" phrase is included but the "at convention" part is just an example and it could be done earlier in virtual role call. However, there seems some scope for people to disagree with this assessment.
It seems Bidenโs $ might not be available to a Harris ticket until after Biden were to be formally nominated โ thus also formally nominating her as vp