How many of my "Manifold's favorite" markets would have a different result if I only included people who know each work?
9
490Ṁ228
resolved Oct 13
100%28%
7 - 10
5%
None
18%
1 - 3
22%
4 - 6
17%
11 - 13
9%
All 14

I've created 14 markets asking, "What is Manifold's favorite X?" that resolve based on a survey where participants can rank each work as "Excellent", "Good", "Okay", "Bad", or "Haven't seen/read/played/heard". The way I will choose Manifold's favorite is just by taking 2*(no. of "Excellent" rankings) + (no. of "Good" rankings) - (no. of "Bad" rankings). This means that a work that more people are familiar with has an advantage, since it's more likely to get more Excellent or Good rankings.

Although I think this is the most faithful interpretation of "favorite", it's also interesting to see which work Manifold judges as the best, that is, "What do the people who have actually seen/read/played/heard the work think of it?" To determine that, I could exclude all the "Haven't seen/read/played/heard" ratings, and take the average, rather than the sum, of the remaining ratings to see what the average person who is familiar with the work thinks. For how many of my markets will this produce a different result than the "favorite"?

If there's a tie when using any method, I'll count it as a full change unless both methods result in the exact same options being tied (in other words, I'm not bothering with "partial agreement" like I did in the dwarf planet market).

The Manifold's favorites markets are:

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-movie

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-book

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-tv-show

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-print-co

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-webcomic

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-song

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-video-ga

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-board-ga

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-roleplay

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-short-st

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-poem

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-podcast

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-youtube

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-play

If I add any others, they won't count for this market.

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

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