It's time for Round 1 of the Cursed Market Tournament.

Which of these two markets will advance to the next round?

YES = /Shelvacu/will-anyone-walk-around-manifest-in

NO = /BarrySang/will-donald-trump-be-assassinated-b-c3b30b1619d9

The poll to determine the Round 1 winners is here: https://forms.gle/ERdCcEEjPy8D55Xn7

Advancement is determined based on votes in the poll*, or the average probability of this market if there's a tie.

See the other Round 1 markets here: https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=cursed-market-tournament-round-1

*Unless there is a clear sign of fraudulent activity, in which case some votes may be removed.