Cursed Market Tournament Finale: Ex stalking vs. Curtain fire
Cursed Market Tournament Finale: Ex stalking vs. Curtain fire
8
190Ṁ1061
resolved Jan 30
Resolved
YES

It's time for the final round of the Cursed Market Tournament.

Which of these two markets will win?

YES = /KelechiYousuf/will-i-go-one-day-without-stalking

NO = /IsaacKing/if-i-set-my-curtain-on-fire-and-don

The poll to determine the Round 5 winner is here: https://forms.gle/Cn2cbL8VcfsgDzsL9

The winner is determined based on votes in the poll*, or the average probability of this market if there's a tie.

You can, of course, arbitrage this with the main market, which it is equivalent to, except for the fact that this one will be used to determine the winner in the case of a tie.

*Unless there is a clear sign of fraudulent activity, in which case some votes may be removed.

Cursed Market Tournament
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ39
2Ṁ17
3Ṁ6
4Ṁ4
5Ṁ0


Sort by:
predictedYES 1y
predictedYES 1y

Here's the main market for arb. If you do think curtain fire is going to win, you can get a better price there: https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/what-is-the-most-cursed-market-on-m

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules