I will resolve this market when someone asks me to in the comments section, and I will resolve it to whatever they want. However, I will only do this if that user would have a net profit of at least 500 mana after the desired resolution. To make this easy to verify, please include a screenshot of your payout/spent/EV/profit values in the comment asking for a resolution. For example, the following would be a valid resolution request:
Resolve it to YES
If I get multiple comments asking me to resolve this, I will resolve based on whichever comment was posted first. Also, resolution requests must be made in a parent comment (to make sure they can't be missed).
I will extend the close date on this market until I get a valid request for resolution.
1,000
1.00Lol @Joshua I was too slow. Saw you bet YES, was briefly terrified and re-read the market description to see what I missed, then you had sold by the time I was done. :'(
Please resolve NO.
@oh Sorry I didn't see this earlier. Yes, this is self-resolving, so you can manipulate it however you want. That is kind of the point.
Thanks for creating this. Now I am wondering how it works ;)
Suppose Trader1 places a book order to buy up to 40% M334 for possible M835 payout.
Trader2 places book orders to buy at 49% and sell at 51% M481 for up to M981 payout.
Does this kill the market?
Or does Trader3 Sell as many as needed down to 40%. As Trader3 places this order he gets ready and consequently posts request for settlement first. If we assume trades at 49% happen before ones at 40% then Trader2 was first to get to position where M500 trading profit was makeable.
If you decide that Trader2 got there first then trader2's book orders kill the market. So perhaps it should be Trader3 first request that should be accepted? If so, this makes Trader2's book orders a bad idea for Trader2. However there could still be some other logic that kills the market.
@ChristopherRandles I'm confused by what you're asking. Limit orders aren't filled by market resolution. If someone holds shares that would net them 500 mana in profit if the market were resolved in a particular way, but also has a limit order to cancel them out at a higher probability, then the limit order doesn't matter, unless it gets triggered before they make their comment.
@JosephNoonan I agree that limit orders aren't filled by market resolution. You have resolved my question by stating it is the first one to comment. I think that makes it more interesting.