Polls tightened slightly but have been relatively stable in the last month. Betting markets shifted toward favoring Trump. Are betters pricing in a polling error on election day, a polling drift toward Trump in the final weeks, or something else? Are they just hot headed? The purpose of this market is to isolate the impact of a polling drift, aka the final rounds of national polls moving toward Trump.

On 10/26 and 11/2, I resolve the respective market to Yes if:

• The 538 national polling average stays within +2% to +2.8% Harris (plus minus 0.4 from today) and

• Polymarket has Trump priced at >= 61% for most hours that day

This is a conditional market and if the polling average is outside +2% to +2.8% Harris I will resolve N/A and return the bet.