Will NYT publish The Needle with a live national forecast on November 5?
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Plus
28
Ṁ14k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
YES

The iconic/infamous Needle was first introduced in the 2016 election night coverage with a live forecast of the presidential winner. In 2020 it returned with the live forecast of 3 swing states but not the national electoral winner.

In what form will it return this November? I will resolve Yes if The Needle returns AND shows a live probability estimate of the presidential winner during ballot counting on November 5.

2016 Needle

2020 Needle

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bought Ṁ2,500 YES

@PlainBG resolves YES

bought Ṁ541 YES

sold Ṁ276 YES

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1853849211432734973

As a result, I do not know whether we will be able to publish the needle. There are good reasons to bet against it, though perhaps there are scenarios where things are running super smoothly; alternately, we hit bugs at the start and there's no chance.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 72% to 69%

@traders what's going on with the Needle? last chance to bet with favorable price

bought Ṁ300 NO
bought Ṁ100 YES

So would a repeat of 2020 count?

@JamesBaker3 Only if the Needle shows the national winner probability. It did not in 2020.

bought Ṁ50 NO from 57% to 54%
opened a Ṁ1 YES at 54% order

betting with my heart. i love the needle

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