The iconic/infamous Needle was first introduced in the 2016 election night coverage with a live forecast of the presidential winner. In 2020 it returned with the live forecast of 3 swing states but not the national electoral winner.
In what form will it return this November? I will resolve Yes if The Needle returns AND shows a live probability estimate of the presidential winner during ballot counting on November 5.
2016 Needle
2020 Needle
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https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1853849211432734973
As a result, I do not know whether we will be able to publish the needle. There are good reasons to bet against it, though perhaps there are scenarios where things are running super smoothly; alternately, we hit bugs at the start and there's no chance.
reading between the lines it doesn't seem there will be a national needle next week