Will Manchester City be severely punished by the Premier League?
24
788
2028
47%
chance

Resolves yes if Man City are found guilty of the charges AND receive any ONE of the following sporting punishments in the original verdict or worse (ignoring appeals):

  1. A 20-point deduction in the same season (Juventus and Everton each got a 10 point deduction)

  2. Stripped of any of their prior Premier League titles

  3. Suspension of their top players for at least 6 months

  4. Relegation of any kind

  5. Ban/expulsion from the Premier League for at least 6 months

I will extend the deadline as needed.

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A minimum 20 point deduction is highly likely in my opinion, IF City are found guilty. The framework being applied in recent months already punished Everton and Forest for a small number of charges and could easily be applied to derive a huge point deduction for City. An added bonus for the Premier League is City actually being good enough to survive a 50-60 point deduction.

The other punishments are less likely because they break the precedents and have bigger brand and diplomatic impact. Conditional on City being found guilty, I believe there's 70-80% chance this will resolve to yes mostly because of the point deduction. But I am uncertain whether City will be convicted given the complexity of the case, many of the charges being over compliance/procedure.

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