Resolves yes if Man City are found guilty of any of the 115 charges of breaking financial fair play rules AND receive one or more of the following sporting punishments in the original verdict or worse:
A 20-point deduction in the same season (Juventus and Everton each got a 10 point deduction)
Stripped of any of their prior Premier League titles
Suspension of their top players for at least 6 months
Relegation of any kind
Ban/expulsion from the Premier League for at least 6 months
Additional Notes:
• Only the punishments handed down in the original ruling will be considered. Appeals or any future reductions to the punishment will not affect the resolution.
• The market may be extended beyond the original deadline if no verdict has been reached by the scheduled date.
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A minimum 20 point deduction is highly likely in my opinion, IF City are found guilty. The framework being applied in recent months already punished Everton and Forest for a small number of charges and could easily be applied to derive a huge point deduction for City. An added bonus for the Premier League is City actually being good enough to survive a 50-60 point deduction.
The other punishments are less likely because they break the precedents and have bigger brand and diplomatic impact. Conditional on City being found guilty, I believe there's 70-80% chance this will resolve to yes mostly because of the point deduction. But I am uncertain whether City will be convicted given the complexity of the case, many of the charges being over compliance/procedure.