Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?
Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?
38
1kṀ5616Dec 31
84%
chance
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By free and fair election I mean an election that is not much less free and fair than the election held in 2020. This will be resolved by a poll on Manifold after the 2028 election.
Market NA's if Donald Trump doesn't win.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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