takeoff.watch forecast: 0%. Trump would be 102 on Election Day 2048, has at most about a 5% chance of living that long, and is barred from a third term by the 22nd Amendment. YES would also need a constitutional collapse that keeps him in power for 20 years, so it is far below the market's 1% floor.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-donald-trump-be-alive-through-bdd27dcadab4

So mathematically, given that Trump lives through 2040, there is at least a 7/18 = 39% chance of him winning the 2048 election?

@AmmonLam Does this market immediately resolve NO if Ol' Donny dies before the 2048 election?

@HenryWilson you might want to read the market title again.

Am I misunderstanding the market or can someone explain why this is at 8%

what question do you have about it? You dont see Trump winning the election over and over until 2048?

that's also possibility that Trump became a dictator and thus winning the 2048 election like how Putin wins it

How does this resolve if Donald Trump Jr. is elected in 2048?

I need to specify that only the orange hair former President Donald Trump counts.

@AmmonLam what if donald jr becomes president sometime between now and 2048 and his hair turns orange somehow? then he'll be an orange haired former president, will that be enough?

@Tripping you must be tripping

@AmmonLam I'll take that as a "yes that counts"

He’ll turn 102 in 2048 in case anyone didn’t want to do the math themselves

in 2021, there were 89,739 centenarians (age 100+) In the US.

I say there’s good chance that Trump lives to age 102

Perhaps you meant 2028? He will be dead by 2048. Anyway am betting on it as written

no, I mean 2048.

Bit silly, will take my profit now I think!

Not sure what’s silly about this. Trump shall make America Great again and again till 2052

What happens in 2052?

He could get reelected again?

But the premise was that America stops being great again in 2052