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I concede.

As a reminder, about a month ago there was a pretty big attack by Ukraine that was reported by Russian MOD: Russian Defense Ministry official says Ukrainian troops advancing in direction of Soledar along entire contact line. Also, fairly similar messaging Russia’s Defense Ministry: No ‘defensive breakthroughs’ at the front lines in Ukraine

This caused panic among Russian war bloggers about the counter-offensive starting which was reported on by media.

The situation is pretty similar: a big attack, followed by Russian MOD reports. Except in that case, they were claiming no counter-offensive going on and now they are claiming that it started. But how much weight would one put on on MODs claims about the counter-offensive starting?

@42irrationalist If I believed the counteroffensive to have started based on the news on 4th of June, I would also have expected it to have started when Ukraine took areas around Bakhmut. It indeed did not feel obvious this particular attack would lead to a larger scale offensive.

It's being described in the guardian as an "apparent precursor" to the counteroffensive.

Notably, "The offensive operations did not appear to use much if any of the 12-brigade assault force that Ukraine has built up in recent months with the help of western training and equipment, suggesting they could be preliminary attacks aimed at probing and stretching Russian defences, in advance of a much bigger push to come."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/05/ukrainian-troops-launch-attacks-along-donetsk-frontline?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Ukraine’s troops attack along front in apparent precursor to counteroffensive

Russian forces driven back in at least two areas as Kyiv says it has shifted to offensive operations in some sectors

@Fion not sure if this counts as "evidence from after 4/6/23" though, so you may want to disregard. But I think it's arguably "discussion from after the deadline of evidence from before the deadline" idk

Just a few reminders since this market is more complicated than expected:

• I will only be considering evidence that came out before market close (the end of June 4 as judged by Chicago/Central time). Evidence that came out after this time will not be considered.

• I will be resolving this based on whether considering just that evidence is enough to make me 50% confident that the counteroffensive has begun, regardless of what evidence after that date says.

• We are currently in a 48 hour discussion period about the evidence. This discussion period will continue until the end of the day tomorrow (Chicago/Central time).

• I likely won't actually resolve the market until Wednesday morning, but I will not read any discussion produced after the end of tomorrow.

I will make sure this is all clearer for future markets.

Ok, this is getting interesting. Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defence claims that Ukraine has begun offensive actions in some areas along a fairly wide front. However, she seems to deny that the Russian MOD's reports of the counter-offensive starting is accurate. She's claiming that in the South there was fighting of 'local importance'.

We now have a weird situation where counter-offensive seems to be beginning with some confirmations from Ukrainian officials, with Ukrainian officials so far denying that the last night's attack is a part of the counter-offensive (or that there was even a significant attack).

@42irrationalist I am a pretty large NO holder, so I might be naturally biased, but in my opinion this official information is a strong evidence in favour of resolving NO: we had intensified fighting for the last few weeks and the last night's attack was no exception from this. Several Ukrainian officials explicitly denied that it was a part of the counter-offensive.

I am curious to hear whether there is an interpretation in favour of resolving this to YES.

@42irrationalist because i don't want you to just be sitting there waiting. i have some errands to run. Ill have my phone w me so i can see notifications.

Wow, this ended up being much more complicated to resolve. We are now in the 48 hour discussion period. I will only consider evidence that was produced as of the close date of the question. Sorry, I should've been more clear about that. It is looking like a tough call and I only need 50% certainty based on that evidence. I will have to consider this carefully. I invite more discussion.

@PeterWildeford Well, it is to me at the moment, let alone last night, not at all clear that the counteroffensive is going on.

@PeterWildeford I think all the evidence so far is consistent with normal back and forth fighting and not indicative of any big counter offensive.

If Ukraine hadn't been hyping their big push for several months I don't think it would even occur to any of us that those Russian reports indicated a big counter offensive had begun.

As it is, the Russian evidence should cause us to update slightly in favour of the counter offensive having begun, but in my opinion not as far as 50%.

My attempt to put very rough numbers on it:

Daily base rate that the Ukrainian offensive starts now: 3% (I actually think this is generous, as it implies approximate certainty in a month... Guess it depends how long a timeframe we average over.)

Probability of these Russian reports (or something like them) coming out given that the Ukrainian offensive has started: 90% (again, this might be too high. I'm trying to be generous to the "other side")

Probability of the Russian reports given that the Ukrainian offensive has not started: 30% (This is the assumption I'm most uncertain about. How common is is to read reports of fighting on the front line? I feel like it's pretty common.)

Calculation using Bayes for how likely it is that the offensive has started given the evidence: 8.5%

I have to admit, I'm surprised by how low that is. My initial estimate was more like 30%. Either my intuition is wrong or my calculation was too simplistic.

Either way, I don't think this evidence gets you to 50%.

@Fion Yes, also add to the facts that Ukrainian officials are now denying that the major counter-offensive is happening. It's hard for me to put a probability on these reports, but my intuition is that they would only deny that the attack is a part of the counter-offensive only if said attack is not that big. Otherwise they'd keep their mouths shut.

Also, Russian MOD is not a reliable source of the scale of the attack, I wouldn't trust their reports of "250 dead". They are known for reporting crazy high numbers that aren't grounded in reality.

There is certainly some "fog of war" present, so it's worth waiting some time and have a discussion.

I have something that i want to present, but i have to do something at the moment, just to confirm that discussion goes on for atleast a day and a half left. ill be back

@PeterWildeford In the past, have exclusively Russian claims about any topic been sufficient to convince you that their claim is more likely than not true?

@Akzzz123 No

@higherLEVELING Yes, the discussion will continue until the end of tomorrow, based on the Central/Chicago timezone.

Meduza, one of the most prominent Russian opposition media, reports that latest videos by Russian MoD contain no shots of new western military equipment (like new tanks) that could be a sign that newly trained brigades are attacking. https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/05/rossiya-ob-yavila-chto-ukraina-nachala-krupnomasshtabnoe-nastuplenie-otvechaem-na-dva-voprosa-1-eto-pravda-2-chto-na-samom-dele-proishodit-na-fronte

Россия объявила, что Украина начала «крупномасштабное наступление». Отвечаем на два вопроса: 1) это правда? 2) что на самом деле происходит на фронте? Важно понимать: все может измениться очень быстро — Meduza

4 июня и в ночь на 5-е ВСУ перешли в атаку на южнодонецком направлении, то есть на административной границе Донецкой и Запорожской областей Украины, возле Угледара. Минобороны РФ называет это началом «крупномасштабного наступления» и говорит, что в атаках участвовали восемь украинских батальонов (ок…

Ukraine officially does not seem to explicitly deny the statement, but it hints that Russian government would spread lies about the counter-offensive (in a way hinting that the manor counter-offensive might have yet to come).

AFU officially reports on Telegram.

@42irrationalist i'm apprehensive for about this, although official, my understanding is there's a media blackout while the operation is underway. To me, this seems like a general warning and not addressing anything the russians are saying specifically.

@higherLEVELING I think I mostly agree with your point that it's a general warning. However it's certainly in response to Russian MOD's claims. I'm reading this as they are not confirming that the counter-offensive has begun (nor they are denying).

However, Meduza, one of the leading Russian opposition media organizaitons, reads the same message as AFU denying the claims of counter-offensive beginning.

Also, the Guardian is now reporting that Ukraine says it has 'no information' about major offensive Russia claims Kyiv has launched.

I'm not sure what are the rules of the media game they are playing. It's certainly worth waiting a couple of days to see what's going on.

@42irrationalist that sounds reasonable. I'm curious if ISW or similar will put anything out about the geoloc.

Should be very obvious within 48 hours if it was/was not the ukranian counteroffensive.

@Fedor From what I understand, the 48 hours are for discussion whereas the resolution will be based on the evidence available till June 4.

I highly doubt Russia making a claim is sufficient evidence to believe in it.

@Akzzz123 Good point about the evidence cutoff. Note that the threshold for YES here is deciding that it is "more likely than not" that it has started, though, no certainty is required.

@Akzzz123 hm. i interpreted it a tiny bit differently. I was under the impression that as long as the events were prior to the date, discussion would be open to hearing explanations or confirmations after

@Akzzz123 That's correct.

@NamesAreHard That's also correct.

@higherLEVELING Sorry, next time I will be more clear.