Will the incidence of cancer in the Pacific Ocean region increase following the disposal of nuclear meltdown wastewater?
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Even if you remove 99.9% of radioactive substances from the water, the small amount that remains can still build up in the seafood. People may be at a higher risk of cancer from this accumulation.

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PSA: the creator has no activity on Manifold besides the creation of this question. They will likely never come back to resolve it. I don’t recommend betting unless you want to trade swings in price.

When will you assess? Based on what sources? I’m also assuming you’ll be looking at cancer rates per se, not into possible causal links, correct? Since cancer rates might increase regardless into the future, this might resolve YES even if there’s no evidence of a link.