PSA: the creator has no activity on Manifold besides the creation of this question. They will likely never come back to resolve it. I don’t recommend betting unless you want to trade swings in price.

When will you assess? Based on what sources? I’m also assuming you’ll be looking at cancer rates per se, not into possible causal links, correct? Since cancer rates might increase regardless into the future, this might resolve YES even if there’s no evidence of a link.