Context
The war began on February 24, 2022. Putin's approval rating (according to Levada Center, a respected non-governmental research organization) was 69% in January 2022. Levada conducted the survey among 1,626 respondents in 50 Russian regions between January 27 and February 27, 2022.
Resolution
For the resolution, we will take the polls published by Levada Center.
The question is "Do you approve of Vladimir Putin's activities as President of Russia?"
If Putin is no longer president by December 31, 2022, the question will resolve NA.
Oct 12, 11:21pm: This poll will likely be published in Jan 2023 and will still count for resolution.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ220 | |
2 | Ṁ112 | |
3 | Ṁ26 | |
4 | Ṁ26 | |
5 | Ṁ23 |
I would presume that the reported rating will still be high:
- lots of people who do not support Putin have fled the country this year;
- those who disapprove of Putin but could not relocate are even less likely to report that honestly to the pollsters during essential wartime and mobilization where this can be considered a betrayal;
- not enough time has passed since the start of very unpopular mobilization to make it worse;
So, the poll results are likely to have a huge bias toward pro-government people.