This resolves according to https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ethereum-merge-eip-3675-occur-by-july-1-2022 . Quoting them:
This is a market on if The Merge will occur on the Ethereum mainnet as described in EIP-3675 (or any successor to EIP-3675) by the resolution time, July 1 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, transitioning the Ethereum blockchain to proof-of-stake.
If the first proof-of-stake block (defined in EIP-3675 as TRANSITION_BLOCK) is produced before the resolution time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, the market will resolve "No".
Note, that forks to the execution layer and the consensus layer implementing EIP-3675 will not have any impact on the market resolution. Only the actual occurrence of The Merge will be considered.
Peter Berggren sold M$109 of NOa month ago
Estimated odds here is below Polymarket's, so I'm closing out my position.
Peter Berggren bought M$100 of NOa month ago
Current value for July on Polymarket is well below ours. I trust them on this one, since they have more liquidity than we do.
Bolton Bailey sold M$26 of NO2 months ago
I still feel 25%-30% is appropriate, and since the probability has dropped below this, I am selling most of my NO shares
Peter Berggren sold M$53 of NO2 months ago
It's gotten close enough to the Polymarket result now that those few percentage points are worth less to me than the random noise of either market going in the wrong direction could be.
Bolton Bailey bought M$11 of NO2 months ago
I'm already pretty heavily invested in this, but the price keeps going up so I'll keep shorting. In the recent all core devs call, they talked about how there were a few clients still not working correctly.
Peter Berggren bought M$50 of NO2 months ago
Someone else seems to have brought the odds here above Polymarket's. I'm keeping the same principle I previously did, and assuming real-money markets work better on this. Intend to sell once the probability goes down to 30%.
Bolton Bailey bought M$26 of NO2 months ago
Most recent testnet kiln has gone through the merge, and there is a client that seems to not be working properly.
https://twitter.com/TimBeiko/status/1503756418788298756?s=20&t=CppHPozpfniDcTefQOaSGw
Peter Berggren bought M$25 of YES2 months ago
I'm still bullish here. The price here has gone down, while Polymarket's price has not gone down at all. Not all Polymarket users are necessarily bullish on crypto, and their market design doesn't necessarily imply a bias towards being bullish on crypto (as all questions are denominated in fiat-collateralized stablecoins). There is less liquidity in that market than there used to be, but Polymarket is still a real-money market with $56,101 of liquidity, compared to Manifold, a play-money market with $16.09 equivalent worth of liquidity. I trust prediction markets to work, otherwise I wouldn't be here. The entire premise of a prediction market is that the "fake positivity" that Hagi talks about will be cancelled out by having to put your money where your mouth is. And if you trust Manifold's price more than you trust Polymarket's, go ahead and buy shares of NO on https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos. As for me, I think real-money markets are better at predicting these things.
Bolton Bailey bought M$40 of NO3 months ago
In fact, his slide says "Mid-2022 -1 month/+3 months", suggesting a probability around 25%.
Bolton Bailey bought M$25 of NO3 months ago
https://youtu.be/NPlmXdnPTEo?t=577 Consensys employee back in December saying most likely later than mid-2022. I don't know of anything that's happened since then to make this more likely.
Peter Berggren bought M$10 of YES3 months ago
Still bullish; Polymarket is 10% above us here. Granted, the crypto world is quite bullish on such things, but there's over $82,000 worth of liquidity in that market, compared to an amount of Manifold Dollars corresponding to $9.03 in this market. I don't trust a highly liquid real-money market to be less correct than a rather illiquid play-money market. Even if Polymarket does use crypto as its underlying tech, the fact that the NYSE uses computer systems doesn't mean that all tech stocks are overvalued. Doubling down on YES; intending to sell once it equalizes with Polymarket.
aps sold M$20 of YES3 months ago
Initially had the same thought as Peter; hagi's comment convinced me that it may not be that easy. Since I don't know what's up in Ethereum land and don't follow the community, I won't bet here.
hagi bought M$20 of NO3 months ago
I'd think it's not unlikely that the percentage on Polymarket is way to optimistic, given the high amount of fake positivity in crypto communities.
Insert "That's good for bitcoin" meme here
Peter Berggren bought M$25 of YES3 months ago
Trading here based on the value from Polymarket, which is a real-money market with quite a bit of liquidity. I trust that its market is more efficient than Manifold's, so I'm trading YES.
Patrick Delaney bought M$1 of NO3 months ago
It's strange that whoever is doing this would put that in a difficult to find, temporary place that only a small segment of users would see rather than out in the open using the, "add to description feature," already available on the platform. That's interesting that someone figured out how to manipulate the market, but I guess market manipulation is conduct designed to actively deceive investors in a market, so in most contexts, like a federal securities context, it would be considered fraud. Of course this is a game so it might be considered, "cheating," rather than fraud, but then again, me tagging things as fraud is also part of the game.
David Glidden bought M$1 of NO3 months ago
@Pepe explained how he's manipulating this market to have it pop to the top of the volume leaderboard on Discord here: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/938171760237477998/944309811368050708
Patrick Delaney bought M$1 of NO3 months ago
Flagging this market for fraud because it seems manipulated. There is an extremely low chance that unknown parties would dump such huge amounts of bets in such quick succession this far out from the date, and in such, "round," numbers close to $70,000 or $80,000 at a time.
Robert McIntyre (gold) bought M$1 of NO3 months ago
WTF is going on with this market?
Q bought M$100 of NO3 months ago
Proof of stake's acronym of POS is appropriate. There are a lot of issues with it as a consensus mechanism that the Beacon chain simply doesn't have solid answers to yet. I expect Vitalik & Co understand this and are pulling a bit of a Star Citizen with a perpetual $CURRENT_DATE + 6 months timeline.
Tetraspace bought M$24 of NO3 months ago
47% on Polymarket, and my intuition was that it's sub-50% just because it's took so long already.