Ethereum Roadmap

I was pleased to see quite a few markets about the Ethereum merge over the past few months. In honor of it finally happening in September, I have made a few markets about other aspects of the "Ethereum Roadmap" - the upgrades that Vitalik Buterin and others have proposed for the coming years.

This tweet outlines the major classes of upgrades remaining. For each of the remaining categories, I've included one or two markets about whether an upgrade from that category will make it onto mainnet by 2024.

"The Surge": This category describes upgrades that are intended to increase the transaction throughput on Ethereum. I've included a market about whether this will double

"The Verge": This is more of a single-upgrade category, proposing a specific cryptographic accumulator scheme called "Verkle trees" to replace Merkle trees. I have a market about whether this scheme will be used in any capacity

"The Purge": This category is

about upgrades that allow Ethereum nodes to forget long-untouched states of the blockchain, loosening up disk requirements. I have [a market](https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/the-purge-will-ethereum-implement-s) asking generically if nodes will be able to forget this state. Another aspect of this part of the roadmap is the idea of changing the SELFDESTRUCT opcode.

"The Splurge": This is something of a "Miscellaneous" category, with many somewhat unrelated upgrade proposals. I've included a market on the largest of these "proposer-builder separation", which seeks to help Ethereum remain decentralized by making the extraction of MEV independent of participation in consensus.

Another smaller splurge is the idea of using VDFs for randomness in leader selection.

UPDATE: Vitalik has posted an updated roadmap!