Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if OpenAI announces or releases any new product, feature, or service on December 25, 2025, and publicly describes it as a "gift," "surprise," or similar holiday-themed language. This includes announcements made via official OpenAI channels (website, social media, blog, livestream, or press release).

The market resolves NO if no such announcement occurs on December 25, 2025, or if any announcements are made on a different date.

Background

OpenAI has a recent tradition of "12 Days of Shipmas" holiday campaigns, with CEO Sam Altman teasing "some big ones and some stocking stuffers." The most recent campaign concluded on December 20, 2024, featuring major releases like Sora, o1, and o3 models. However, these announcements were spread across multiple days leading up to Christmas rather than concentrated on Christmas Day itself.

Considerations

OpenAI's holiday gift campaigns have historically been structured as multi-day events rather than single-day releases. The company's pattern suggests announcements are typically front-loaded in early-to-mid December to maximize media coverage and user engagement before the holiday break, rather than on Christmas Day when audience attention is typically lower.