Well, I have one sure thing coming in (tm) which will give me about 2.7k. and I’m hoping that everyone was too busy at solstice to realize that there actually will be a shutdown across the less active polls rather than those people simply deciding there wasn’t a shutdown. I need to make 3.5k clean (Not counting any currently unrealized gains) to be back in the black. To answer the question of if I need to be in the black after new years or if I could be in the black for 1 minute, well the spirit would be that I am in the black in a stable manner. To make it more fair, I will stop trading at 11:59 until market is resolved, but I will still wait until 11:59PM Jan 1st to tally up my total performance to account for database stuff. I’ll have to be in the black at 11:59 as well, if I’m only positive for a few hours like at 3pm, that doesn’t count

@PaulHan it wasn’t a sure thing

@PaulHan i cannot believe i knew about the shutdown quibble and still lost money

I have 2 big bets in the pipeline and exited out of the shutdown betting. If they fail it’ll be very hard for me to come back.

My active fund management has managed to lose 1.5k so far but i have many tricks up my sleeve. I have watched 3 tiktok’s featuring montages of jim simons

There are a ton of bets that resolve at the same time as this one Dec 31st. Should I resolve based on my value on 11:59 or after the markets settle, probably a few min after midnight

@PaulHan Id suggest even later, like a day or two. Manifold has a habit of not updating the profit graph immediately.

@ScipioFabius ok i’ll do jan 1st 11:59

I believe in you!

3500 mana in the past week, around 2000 mana needed, seems easily doable if you don't badly screw up

What was your misunderstanding last time that led to such huge losses?

@TheAllMemeingEye