Preface / Inspiration:
There are obviously lots of prognostications and soothsaying with regard to A.I. right now, much of it based upon a-priori beliefs based upon hype rather than deconstruction of what's going on. Further complicating things, not only are people getting super swept up on a hype cycle, folks are now literally asking A.I. (LLM's) what to think and copy+pasting thier outputs, often without any validation, as a substitute for thinking.
This type of market is aimed at getting people to deconstruct the business or organizational environments around various stuff going on in the A.I. space and try to help us all think a bit more deeper.
Market Description:
Blocker vs. Destination Site
Inspired by this episode of the All-In Podcast. I'm doing my best to attempt to polarize the debate around two camps:
Chamath Palihapitiya:
A blocker is a card held by a player that makes it impossible (or less likely) that an opponent has a hand that includes that card
vs. Jason Calacanis:
Previously the thought was that OpenAI would be an API service, now it may becoming more clear that it has designs towards being a destination site.
A destination site is a website that serves as a starting point for other activities or that brings together frequently accessed online applications such as email, shopping, and newsfeeds in one place.
Will ChatGPT end up becoming a Destination Site and completely upend Google and several other destination sites, eating their lunch because they are so far ahead?
or will Google have a sufficient, "blocker," in that the proprietary data it contains far outweighs all of the other data that OpenAI could hypothetically obtain from partnerships?
Market Resolution Threshold
This market will be resolved by the perponderance of the evidence from both comments in this thread and any outside sources.
Market maker will either resolve themselves or appoint a resolver.
If an episode of All In goes back to revisit this question within a year after the market resolves, and if the All In Team ackwnoledges this marketplace and mentions that they will talk about it and try to resolve the question, the resolution will defer to them.
Possibilities are: YES / NO / N/A or Probability.
YES = ChatGPT successfully became a Destination Site.
Related questions
@Gigacasting CoPilot typically gets in the way of what I'm trying to do, most of the time I wanted to tell it to just shut up. I'm sure it does great with CSS, HTML, simple Javascript functions, etc. ChatGPT3.5 predicts a lot more, often wrong, but in the last few days I see them attempting some kind of blended code compilation similar to AlphaCode, we'll see how that goes. ChatGPT could surpass other methods in certain applications if they can actually compile and test code before vomiting out whatever incorrect answer. Looking at the actual codebase >> Documentation >> Stackoverflow.
