Prediction Markets Poll: Most Describes What Aspect of Truth Seeking I Get Out of Prediction Markets?
Prediction Markets Poll: Most Describes What Aspect of Truth Seeking I Get Out of Prediction Markets?
4
resolved Dec 1
Information and Belief Testing: Engaging to acquire new information and to challenge or validate existing beliefs and assumptions.
Exposure and Personal Growth: Seeking diverse opinions and viewpoints, while also valuing moments of being proven wrong for self-improvement.
Debate and Accuracy: Prioritizing focused debates and the ability to measure the correctness of predictions over time.
Intellectual Community: Valuing the sense of belonging to a community that emphasizes rigorous, evidence-based thinking.
Other (Please specify)
This is not really a true dichotomy (quartomy?), it's just a way to discuss ideas.
If you had to pick one of the above, what most describes your reason for participating in Manifold?
If you use other Prediction Markets or none of the reasons fit you at all above, please comment below. You can still vote and then comment as well to clarify your vote.
The above is related to this question. specifically to those who may have answered, "Truth Seeking, Challenging My Conceptions, Hoping to Be Shown Wrong, Learn New Information, Ego-Busting":
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.