This might not be a true dichotomy, as there might be markets that, in terms of resolution timeframe are 9 years long that one finds to be not important and markets that are 100 years long that one finds super important.
This is more to get a general sense of what people think on the aggregate. Do long term markets, meaning 10-year or more, matter?
Bet on how this poll will resolve:
Other Relevant Polls:
1,000
3.00They matter in an abstract sense. Like we should have 30-year or 100-year mortgages, which involves predicting default risk on the person. Society should have 10+ year budget allocations for big projects.
But Manifold long-term markets are completely useless, except as fancy polls. They are not actual markets.
Additional poll, more feature oriented, created:
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/if-you-had-to-pick-what-criterium-w#
