At the end of August 2027, will California be in a widespread drought?

Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.

No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".

The measure is if there's a drought in August, so this won't close early if there's a widespread drought sooner.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, as of the last week of August 2026, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows large parts of California in at least a moderate drought (D1 or higher). It resolves NO if most of California is either not in a drought or classified as "abnormally dry" (D0) or better. Resolution will be determined by checking the U.S. Drought Monitor's California state map.