At the end of August 2026, will California be in a widespread drought?

Yes: As reported by the US Drought Monitor, large parts of California are in at least a moderate drought as per the U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.

No: Most of California is either not in a drought, or at most "abnormally dry".

The measure is if there's a drought in August, so this won't close early if there's a widespread drought sooner.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, as of the last week of August 2026, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows large parts of California in at least a moderate drought (D1 or higher). It resolves NO if most of California is either not in a drought or classified as "abnormally dry" (D0) or better. Resolution will be determined by checking the U.S. Drought Monitor's California state map for the week ending August 31, 2026.

Background

Water Year 2026 began October 1, 2025 with a wet start, with several areas of California receiving more than 300% of normal water year to date precipitation, significantly improving conditions from the previous year. However, with La Niña still influencing California's climate, it could be a highly variable year, and it is quite possible California will have a drier than average winter in the southern part of the state. California's climate is characterized by a distinct dry season (approximately May to September) and wet season (approximately October to April), meaning August falls in the critical dry season when drought conditions typically intensify.