Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict reach a ceasefire by the end of 2023?
85
788
1.1K
resolved Nov 30
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if an official ceasefire is reached before January 1st, 2024 and is not broken by either side for at least 48 hours.

Resolves NO if no ceasefire is agreed upon or if the ceasefire is broken within the first 48 hours.

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bought Ṁ55 of NO

"or if the ceasefire is broken within the first 48 hours"

it was broken within the first 15 minutes

Also, when this market was made, ceasefire and pause were considered separate in the public discourse. The fact that the current pause is being referred to as a ceasefire should not be relevant, as bets were made with the original meaning in mind.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@manyu whats the difference between pause and ceasefire
EDIT: nvm. figured it out.

predicted NO

A pause is temporary by intention. Here's e.g. Bernie Sanders advocating for a pause while simultaneously saying on air a ceasefire doesn't seem possible.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/opinion/bernie-sanders-israel-gaza.html

A pause is what has happened.

predicted YES

@manyu Thanks. are the words pause and ceasefire being used interchangably in the media or is it mostly being used correctly and i just didn't notice

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING yes, they are. and several manifold markets regarding a 48 hour ceasefire have been resolved. there is no difference.

predicted YES

simply googling ceasefire will bring up copious media coverage referring to this as a ceasefire. both parties agree that the ceasefire remains in effect. should resolve yes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/27/deal-agreed-to-extend-gaza-ceasefire-for-two-days-say-hamas-and-qatar

https://www.bbc.com/news/57200843

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry Yes, but that certainly wasn't how the terms were being used at market creation.

predicted YES

@manyu that's debatable but if op meant a permanent ceasefire i doubt he would've said it has to last 48 hours.

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry It's not about how long the ceasefire lasts in practice, it's about what its terms are. I.e. when Israel resumes its invasion in a week or so, it wouldn't be a ceasefire violation.

predicted YES

@manyu OP did not specify terms, he specified a time duration, which has passed, and which has been referred to as such by every credible news organization and both parties to the conflict.

predicted YES

it's been 48 hours and the ceasefire remains in effect- should resolve yes @ParadoxEpoch

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Wonder why this market is above the other two given that it will resolve No if the ceasefire is broken.

predicted NO

Does the five day ceasefire that's being discussed in the news count or only permanent ceasefires? How drastic must the break be to count?

predicted YES

@MaxMorehead 48 hours.

predicted NO

@TonyBaloney yeah when I first saw this market, media reports seemed to separate "pause" from "(indefinite) ceasefire", though I now see that distinction is not actually made by the meda. It still remains a question if the ceasefire is considered broken if there are isolated violations (e.g. one soldier fires at enemy).

predicted NO
bought Ṁ50 of NO

I believe there will be a deal, but no chance Hamas keeps their end of the bargain. They literally haven't once since their inception kept their end of ceasefires and agreements

2 traders bought Ṁ15 NO

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