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"or if the ceasefire is broken within the first 48 hours"

it was broken within the first 15 minutes

Also, when this market was made, ceasefire and pause were considered separate in the public discourse. The fact that the current pause is being referred to as a ceasefire should not be relevant, as bets were made with the original meaning in mind.

@manyu whats the difference between pause and ceasefire
EDIT: nvm. figured it out.

A pause is temporary by intention. Here's e.g. Bernie Sanders advocating for a pause while simultaneously saying on air a ceasefire doesn't seem possible.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/opinion/bernie-sanders-israel-gaza.html

A pause is what has happened.

@manyu Thanks. are the words pause and ceasefire being used interchangably in the media or is it mostly being used correctly and i just didn't notice

@higherLEVELING yes, they are. and several manifold markets regarding a 48 hour ceasefire have been resolved. there is no difference.

simply googling ceasefire will bring up copious media coverage referring to this as a ceasefire. both parties agree that the ceasefire remains in effect. should resolve yes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/27/deal-agreed-to-extend-gaza-ceasefire-for-two-days-say-hamas-and-qatar

https://www.bbc.com/news/57200843

@SemioticRivalry Yes, but that certainly wasn't how the terms were being used at market creation.

@manyu that's debatable but if op meant a permanent ceasefire i doubt he would've said it has to last 48 hours.

@SemioticRivalry It's not about how long the ceasefire lasts in practice, it's about what its terms are. I.e. when Israel resumes its invasion in a week or so, it wouldn't be a ceasefire violation.

@manyu OP did not specify terms, he specified a time duration, which has passed, and which has been referred to as such by every credible news organization and both parties to the conflict.

it's been 48 hours and the ceasefire remains in effect- should resolve yes @ParadoxEpoch

Wonder why this market is above the other two given that it will resolve No if the ceasefire is broken.

Does the five day ceasefire that's being discussed in the news count or only permanent ceasefires? How drastic must the break be to count?

@MaxMorehead 48 hours.

@TonyBaloney yeah when I first saw this market, media reports seemed to separate "pause" from "(indefinite) ceasefire", though I now see that distinction is not actually made by the meda. It still remains a question if the ceasefire is considered broken if there are isolated violations (e.g. one soldier fires at enemy).

Here's a real money market with longer ceasefire duration: https://insightprediction.com/m/247061/will-there-be-a-prolonged-ceasefire-between-hamas-and-israel-by-december-31st

I believe there will be a deal, but no chance Hamas keeps their end of the bargain. They literally haven't once since their inception kept their end of ceasefires and agreements