
i.e. through the 2024 presidential election term
Biden: Age 86 then
Trump: Age 82 then
Carter: Age 98, still chugging along
Bush: Age 94
Reagan: Age 93
Ford: Age 93
Nixon: 64
LBJ: Age 64
Kennedy: 46
Eisenhower: 78
Truman: 88
Roosevelt: 63
Hoover: 90
It seems like they usually live a lot. 6 of the 11 lived past 86.
@SirSquax Longer if you condition on them already having lived to be 76 and 80.
~55.5% chance if it were random American 76 and 80 year old males
76 year old male: (1-0.026831)*(1-0.029855)*(1-0.033151)*(1-0.036829)*(1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683/5) = ~79.6%
80 year old male: (1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683)*(1-0.057896)*(1-0.064863)*(1-0.072731)*(1-0.081626/5) = ~69.7%
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
@Quate "Take the first eight Presidents, for example – the average lifespan was 79.8 years, during a time when life expectancy at birth for men was less than 40 years old."
Rounding off and extrapolating to today's life expectancy, presidents should live to 154.















