Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029?
126
488
2K
2029
60%
chance

i.e. through the 2024 presidential election term

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bought Ṁ250 of NO
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Social security actuarial table
Trump 6 yr survival (rounding his age up to 77 because he's fat): 36,224/53,685=0.674
Biden 6yr survival: 26,518/45,397=0.584

conjunction = 0.674*0.584 = 0.393

But then you have to adjust upward a lot for SES. This actuarial table overestimated congress' annual death rates by 4x. Going long at 53%

Biden: Age 86 then

Trump: Age 82 then

Carter: Age 98, still chugging along

Bush: Age 94

Reagan: Age 93

Ford: Age 93

Nixon: 64

LBJ: Age 64

Kennedy: 46

Eisenhower: 78

Truman: 88

Roosevelt: 63

Hoover: 90

It seems like they usually live a lot. 6 of the 11 lived past 86.

@MP Nixon 81

bought Ṁ20 of YES
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@SirSquax Longer if you condition on them already having lived to be 76 and 80.

~55.5% chance if it were random American 76 and 80 year old males

76 year old male: (1-0.026831)*(1-0.029855)*(1-0.033151)*(1-0.036829)*(1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683/5) = ~79.6%

80 year old male: (1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683)*(1-0.057896)*(1-0.064863)*(1-0.072731)*(1-0.081626/5) = ~69.7%

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@PatMyron They're definitely not random. They're former presidents! We try to keep those alive as long as possible.

predicts NO

@Quate "Take the first eight Presidents, for example – the average lifespan was 79.8 years, during a time when life expectancy at birth for men was less than 40 years old."

Rounding off and extrapolating to today's life expectancy, presidents should live to 154.

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