Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029? | Manifold Markets

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029?

2029

53

65%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

i.e. through the 2024 presidential election term

2024 US Presidential Election

Sort by:

Biden: Age 86 then

Trump: Age 82 then

Carter: Age 98, still chugging along

Bush: Age 94

Reagan: Age 93

Ford: Age 93

Nixon: 64

LBJ: Age 64

Kennedy: 46

Eisenhower: 78

Truman: 88

Roosevelt: 63

Hoover: 90

It seems like they usually live a lot. 6 of the 11 lived past 86.

Sir Squaxbought Ṁ20 of YES

Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ100 of YES

@SirSquax Longer if you condition on them already having lived to be 76 and 80.

~55.5% chance if it were random American 76 and 80 year old males

76 year old male: (1-0.026831)*(1-0.029855)*(1-0.033151)*(1-0.036829)*(1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683/5) = ~79.6%

80 year old male: (1-0.041122)*(1-0.046102)*(1-0.051683)*(1-0.057896)*(1-0.064863)*(1-0.072731)*(1-0.081626/5) = ~69.7%

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Quatebought Ṁ100 of YES

@PatMyron They're definitely not random. They're former presidents! We try to keep those alive as long as possible.

Lachlan Munrois predicting NO at 59%

@Quate "Take the first eight Presidents, for example – the average lifespan was 79.8 years, during a time when life expectancy at birth for men was less than 40 years old."

Rounding off and extrapolating to today's life expectancy, presidents should live to 154.

Clay Wagner bought Ṁ10 YES at 65%

mark rode bought Ṁ10 NO from 66% to 65%

Trong sold Ṁ10 NO from 65% to 66%

Quatach-Ichl bought Ṁ10 NO from 66% to 65%

Nuno Balbona bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 66%

Quatach-Ichl bought Ṁ20 NO from 67% to 65%

Trong bought Ṁ10 NO at 67%

Logan Turner sold Ṁ17 NO from 66% to 67%

Duncn bought Ṁ1 NO at 66%

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ10 YES at 66%

Will Hardt bought Ṁ50 NO from 69% to 66%

Code & Solder bought Ṁ10 NO from 70% to 69%

Matt P bought Ṁ100 YES from 67% to 70%

Matt P bought Ṁ90 YES from 63% to 67%

Matt P bought Ṁ60 YES from 61% to 63%

Duncn bought Ṁ25 NO from 63% to 61%

Eugger bought Ṁ3 YES from 62% to 63%

Bill Song sold Ṁ3 NO at 62%

Logan Turner bought Ṁ20 NO from 64% to 62%

wasabipesto bought Ṁ5 YES from 63% to 64%

Wobbles bought Ṁ10 YES at 63%

Jim Ausman bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 63%

seaton bought Ṁ10 NO from 65% to 64%

Bill Song bought Ṁ40 NO from 68% to 65%

Bill Song bought Ṁ10 NO at 68%

Shaked Koplewitz sold Ṁ41 YES from 70% to 68%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ100 YES from 68% to 70%

MP bought Ṁ10 YES at 68%

Teddy Weverka sold Ṁ10 YES at 68%

Wobbles bought Ṁ10 YES at 68%

Carson Gale bought Ṁ10 NO from 69% to 68%

Pat Myron created limit order for Ṁ151 NO at 70%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ100 YES from 64% to 69%

Teddy Weverka bought Ṁ10 YES at 64%

Lagged variable bought Ṁ10 NO from 65% to 64%

jozef isreal bought Ṁ40 YES from 62% to 65%

jozef isreal bought Ṁ95 YES from 56% to 62%

jozef isreal bought Ṁ50 NO from 61% to 56%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ100 NO at 61% (cancelled)

Eugger bought Ṁ82 YES from 58% to 63%

Sir Squax bought Ṁ20 YES from 57% to 58%

Eugger bought Ṁ1 YES at 57%

Gabrielle bought Ṁ10 NO from 58% to 57%

Pat Myron created limit order for Ṁ200 NO at 69% (cancelled)

Dean Valentine sold Ṁ15 YES from 59% to 58%

Joel bought Ṁ8 NO from 60% to 59%

Jf P bought Ṁ32 NO from 63% to 60%

Mr.Dunning sold Ṁ19 NO from 61% to 63%

Gigacasting bought Ṁ30 YES from 59% to 61%

Lars Doucet bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 59%

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