Resolution criteria

Schumer has led the Senate Democratic Caucus since 2017. The market resolves YES on the date when Schumer ceases to be the leader of Senate Democrats. This includes resignation, removal through a leadership election, or any other mechanism by which he is no longer the official leader of the Democratic caucus. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Senate Democratic Caucus or major news sources reporting the change in leadership. Schumer's current Senate term ends on January 3, 2029, though his leadership position could change before then.

Background

Schumer served as Senate Majority Leader from 2021 to 2025 and has served two stints as Senate Minority Leader, from 2017 to 2021 and since 2025. After facing pressure to step down as Senate leader in 2025, Schumer said he has no intention to do so. In December 2024, Schumer was reelected as leader of the Senate Democrats.

Considerations

Leadership elections for Senate Democrats typically occur at the start of each new Congress or when a vacancy arises. While Schumer has faced internal pressure from progressive members, he maintains support from the broader caucus. The timing of when he ceases to be leader depends on factors including his own decisions, electoral outcomes, and potential challenges from within the Democratic caucus.