If Biden loses, what will be the main reason (according to Manifold) [Open Answer]
23
1.8kṀ5767
resolved Jul 25
Resolved
N/A
Inflation
Resolved
N/A
His Age
Resolved
N/A
Immigration
Resolved
N/A
Covid
Resolved
N/A
Gerrymandering
Resolved
N/A
Israel/Palestine

Please feel free to add responses!

If Biden loses the general election, then in mid-late November 2024, I will post a poll to manifold with the title “What is the main reason Biden lost”. The poll will have corresponding options to the answers to this question when it closes. Each answer to this question will resolve to the percentage it receives in the poll (both should end up summing to 100) I will extend the market and the poll date if the election is not resolved.

If he wins, or if he drops out before becoming the nominee, or dies/becomes incapacitated before the election after becoming the nominee, I will ask a mod to resolve N/A

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@PaperBoy If Biden drops out of the election, will you post a poll as well? Or would you resolve this to N/A?

I think based on the description I originally wrote. “losing the general election” implies he’s the nominee. So in fairness I think I’d have to get a mod to N/A it. It’s a fair ask though. When I made the question I assumed it was essentially certain that he was going to be the nominee which wasn’t a great assumption

bought Ṁ50 NO

@PaperBoy Is it time to N/A this one then? (Cc: @mods)

Yes please @mods

Stark boughtṀ50 NO

I feel like there should be an "Other/Unlisted" option in this market/the corresponding poll

bought Ṁ200 NO

This probably should have been linked MC instead of unlinked.

bought Ṁ150 NO

Israel/Palestine is only a high priority for a very small percentage of voters, Covid is now a distant memory for most, and gerrymandering doesn't even apply to the presidential race. Inflation and age are really the only things here that affect his chances

bought Ṁ250 NO

How does this resolve if he wins? I think N/A is no longer an option...

@BrunoJ Wait does that mean conditional only markets can’t exist anymore?

@PaperBoy That's my understanding... 🫤

@BrunoJ Maybe if he wins I’ll just resolve each option to the percentage equivalent of 100/(number of answers). So if there are 10 answers and he wins I would resolve each to 10%

@PaperBoy Mods can still resolve markets N/A, so if he wins, you can ask a mod

@PlasmaBallin Excellent! Thanks

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