Will Hamas meet Israel’s ceasefire deal deadline of May 10th?
42
100Ṁ3937resolved May 11
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This market resolves Yes if Hamas and Israel publicly agree to a ceasefire deal by the ultimatum deadline reported by WSJ and others. If the deadline is extended and passes by, this resolves No. The ceasefire effectively unfolding is a separate question. Timezone deadline is Israel local time, 11:59pm.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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News today is positive-ish.
This is probably a little underestimated at 30%
@CraigTalbert I disagree, the main sticking point of whether the ceasefire will be temporary or permanent still hasn't been solved. I don't think there is a mutually acceptable middle ground.